Boeing predicts steady 20-year aircraft demand despite current travel slump
Executive says air travel demand “fundamentals” remain ‘”intact”. Despite an air travel demand slowdown this year, Boeing is maintaining its expectation that airlines over 20 years will require 43,625 additional passenger and cargo jets, a figure largely unchanged from expectations it published in June 2025. The company’s 2026 Commercial Market Update, released on 17 July, estimates the world’s airlines through 2045 will need 33,545 narrowbody, 7,715 widebody, 930 freighter and 1,435 regional aircraft. “We have a pretty stable view on the demand for airplanes, for air travel and the ecosystem that surrounds it,” says Boeing vice-president of commercial marketing Darren Hulst. The company’s forecasted 43,625 aircraft deliveries through 2045 compares to Airbus’s projection, released in recent days, that airlines will need 42,060 aircraft over the same period. Hulst notes the aerospace industry, entering 2026, had expected air travel demand for the year would track or exceed 2025’s 5.3% year-on-year growth, measured in revenue passenger kilometers. But factors like the US-Iran war and resulting elevated fuel prices have brought that expectation down to 2.3% anticipated growth, with Hulst saying, “2026 isn’t going, commercially, from an industry perspective, like a lot of us expected”. At the same time, aerospace companies continue facing shortages of critical components and skilled labour, limiting the pace at which they have been able to ramp production. Hulst estimates those issues have left the global airline industry short some 2,000 aircraft, relative to demand. “However… the fundamentals for air travel and demand for air travel are completely intact,” Hulst says. Boeing expects air travel demand will “rebound” next year to 6-7% year-on-year growth, followed by another 5-6% growth in 2028. Meanwhile, Boeing and other aircraft manufacturers have had recent success increasing output. The 43,625 deliveries Boeing anticipates over 20 years will bring the total fleet to 50,095 aircraft by 2045, up from 27,945 in 2025, Boeing’s outlook says. Of those deliveries, it expects a combined 80% will go to carriers in China, Eurasia, South and Southeast Asia, and North American – split evenly at roughly 20% for each region.