Airbus Forecasts Doubling of Air Passengers by 2045 Led by Urban Growth and Aircraft Efficiency
Urbanisation, rising GDP, and more efficient aircraft are set to drive robust long-term demand for air travel, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) for 2026-2045. As populations shift and economies grow, air travel is evolving. ezstandalone.cmd.push(function () { ezstandalone.showAds(119); }); Urbanisation is no longer limited to megacities. Instead, smaller urban centres are expanding rapidly—nearly three times faster than larger ones. This shift, combined with a growing middle class and increasing diaspora communities, is creating new opportunities for direct flights between smaller city pairs. Efficient aircraft are making these routes economically viable. Modern planes can now connect cities that were previously too costly or distant to serve profitably. ezstandalone.cmd.push(function () { ezstandalone.showAds(127); }); Examples include routes like Riga to Tenerife or Melbourne to Alice Springs, which the A220 already handles effectively. Newer models with greater range are opening even more possibilities, such as Lisbon-Recife on the A321neo, Dublin-Nashville with the A321XLR, Algiers-Kuala Lumpur via the A330neo, and Taipei-Phoenix on the A350. ezstandalone.cmd.push(function () { ezstandalone.showAds(128); }); Photo Credit: Airbus Airbus Product Line Matches Market Needs Airbus’ strong order book of around 9,000 aircraft reflects this market demand. The company is ramping up production across its range, from the A220 to the A350, with the A320 Family reaching a rate of 75 aircraft per month. Notably, more than 70% of the A320 backlog consists of the larger A321neo and A321XLR variants—ideal for new, thinner routes. Wider-body aircraft like the A330neo serve high-capacity routes, while the A350 handles ultra-long-haul flights and is proving popular in the cargo segment with its freighter version. ezstandalone.cmd.push(function () { ezstandalone.showAds(129); }); Aviation plays a vital role beyond passengers. It transports high-value goods quickly to market and connects people for business, leisure, family visits, and more. For many communities, it serves as an essential economic lifeline. Resilient Passenger Growth Forecast Global air traffic continues to show strong resilience. The number of people in the middle class—the group most likely to fly—is expected to rise by 1.4 billion (+34%) by 2045. Airbus forecasts annual passenger traffic growth of 3.9% over the next 20 years, driven by global GDP growth of 2.6%, an additional 1.3 billion urban dwellers, and expanding middle classes. As a result, annual passenger numbers are projected to more than double, reaching around 10 billion by 2045. ezstandalone.cmd.push(function () { ezstandalone.showAds(130); }); Short-term challenges such as regional conflicts or high fuel prices have not weakened long-term demand, consistent with historical patterns. Growth is particularly strong in the Asia-Pacific region, with dynamic economies in India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia leading the way. International migration and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) travel are also boosting international routes. Photo Credit: IATA Strong Demand for New, Efficient Aircraft To meet this growth and replace older planes, the world will need 42,060 new aircraft over the next 20 years. This includes 19,820 replacements and 22,240 for expansion. Single-aisle aircraft will account for 81% of deliveries, with widebodies making up the remaining 19%. These new-generation planes offer better cost efficiency and lower CO₂ emissions. ezstandalone.cmd.push(function () { ezstandalone.showAds(131); }); Fleet renewal is accelerating after COVID-19, as older aircraft are retired faster. By 2045, Airbus expects nearly 100% of the global fleet to consist of new-generation aircraft. This is up from about 39% in 2026. This transition supports profitable operations on both low-density routes and long-haul sectors while improving overall environmental performance. In summary, Airbus’ forecast highlights a decentralised, more connected future for aviation. Thanks to urbanisation trends, economic growth, and increasingly capable aircraft, air travel is poised to connect more people and places than ever before—driving economic benefits worldwide. ezstandalone.cmd.push(function () { ezstandalone.showAds(132); });