Airbus Forecasts Doubling of Air Passengers by 2045 Led by Urban Growth and Aircraft Efficiency

Airbus released its Global Market Forecast (GMF) outlining expectations for robust air travel growth from 2026 through 2045. The forecast attributes this surge to worldwide urbanisation trends, rising GDP, and increasingly efficient aircraft that make new routes economically viable. The company anticipates passenger numbers will more than double, reaching around 10 billion annually by 2045, driven in part by a 34% increase in the global middle class.

The report highlights that urbanisation is expanding beyond megacities; smaller urban centers are growing nearly three times faster. This shift is creating new demand for direct flights between smaller city pairs, facilitated by modern aircraft like the A220 and A321neo series that can serve these thinner routes profitably. Examples cited include recent or future services such as Riga to Tenerife and Dublin to Nashville, routes previously uneconomical with older aircraft.

Airbus bases much of its growth expectations on its broad product range that aligns closely with evolving market needs. The company is accelerating production across models—from the smaller A220 to the ultra-long-haul capable A350—with an A320 family production rate hitting 75 aircraft per month. Notably, over 70% of their A320 backlog comprises the larger and longer-range A321neo and A321XLR variants, reflecting a shift toward more flexible, longer thin routes. Wide-body models like the A330neo and A350 address both high-capacity and long-distance segments, including cargo operations.

The forecast emphasizes aviation's critical role beyond passenger transport; air cargo delivers high-value goods rapidly, underpinning global supply chains, while passenger air travel facilitates business, family reunions, and tourism. Aviation often functions as an economic lifeline, especially for communities connecting via air to global networks.

Passenger growth projections remain resilient despite short-term challenges like regional conflicts and fuel price volatility. Growth is strongest in the Asia-Pacific region, propelled by robust economies in India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Additionally, increasing international migration and travelling to visit friends and relatives (VFR) further stimulate global air route demand.

To meet this burgeoning demand and replace aging fleets, Airbus projects a global need for 42,060 new aircraft over two decades. Of these, 22,240 are to accommodate network expansion, while 19,820 will replace older aircraft. Single-aisle planes will dominate deliveries, accounting for 81%, with wide-body aircraft making up the remainder. These new-generation aircraft promise better fuel efficiency and reduced CO2 emissions, aligning with environmental and economic goals.

Post-pandemic dynamics have accelerated fleet renewal; older aircraft are retired more swiftly, with expectations that by 2045 nearly 100% of the global fleet will consist of new-generation models, up from about 39% in 2026. This modernization supports profitable operation on both low-density and long-haul routes while advancing environmental sustainability objectives.

Overall, Airbus forecasts a decentralised and highly connected future for aviation, in which emerging urban centres and technological advancements enable a broader array of direct air connections worldwide. This evolution is expected to boost economic opportunities globally by bridging more people and regions through air connectivity.