Aeromexico anticipates strong second half after Q2 profit decline due to fuel and World Cup effects
Mexican carrier eyes double-digit operating profit margin for full year, after fuel costs and World Cup impact hit second-quarter profits. Aeromexico believes it is in "good shape" to take advantage of more favourable conditions in the second half of the year after riding out challenges in the second quarter. The Mexican carrier posted an operating profit of $68 million for the three months ending June 2026, down from $230 million a year before, and slipped to a net loss of $58 million compared to a profit of $68 million for the second quarter in 2025. Speaking during a second-quarter earnings call on 14 July, Aeromexico chief executive Andres Conesa said the carrier had posted results "generally in line" with the guidance it issued in April. Notably, the quarter included sharp increases in fuel costs after the Iran conflict hit – Aeromexico's second-quarter fuel bill was $219 million higher year-on-year – as well as uncertainty around the impact on traffic demand of the football World Cup, co-hosted by Mexico. "Demand remained healthy in April and May, supported by solid market fundamentals and strong commercial [strategy] execution," Conesa says. "In June, demand moderated in the domestic market as travel patterns were temporarily impacted by World Cup-affected shifts [in traffic demand]. "We adjusted our network in anticipation of lower corporate traffic in June around the dates where Mexico's national team played, a strategy that proved successful and allowed us to avoid some unprofitable flying,” he says. The strong demand environment, in which the carrier says it was able to recapture more than three-quarters of the additional fuel costs through higher fares, enabled Aeromexico to boost revenues 13% to $1.48 billion in the second quarter. Conesa in particular highlights a percentage point increase in its premium revenue mix – which accounted for a record high 43% of Aeromexico’s passenger revenues in the quarter. "Despite fare increases driven by higher fuel costs, our customers did not trade down – underscoring the resilience of demand for our premium offering," he says. "The first half of the year has once again demonstrated our ability to adapt quickly without compromising our long-term strategy," he adds, noting that healthy demand trends, its commercial execution and a more favourable fuel environment give it confidence for a strong second half. Bright outlook "We expect higher EBITDA and EBIT for both the third and the fourth quarters," says Conesa. "Full-year EBIT margin is predicted to be in the low double-digit range, a remarkable outcome considering the challenging environment we have seen this year." The outlook is also supported by a return to higher capacity growth in the fourth quarter. Aeromexico increased capacity less than 2% in the second quarter, but expects to lift ASKs by up to 8% in the fourth quarter. That reflects additional widebody capacity, following the recent delivery of a pair of Boeing 787s, as well as taking advantage of additional slots available at Mexico City International airport. That follows the increase this winter in hourly movements from 44 to 46 at the airport, of which Aeromexico's share is 10 daily slots. "We are in a very good shape for the second half," says Conesa. "Of course, we [still] have significant numbers of seats to sell, but the demand environment has continued to hold up." He acknowledges fuel price volatility remains – underlined by recent increases in the Brent Crude oil price as the Iran-US ceasefire has faltered. "We are monitoring that very closely," he says. "But we feel very confident that we will be able to achieve these targets.”