FAA Forecasts 24,600 Advanced Air Mobility Flights in First Year of Service

The Federal Aviation Administration has released its latest Aerospace Forecast, projecting that Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) operations in the United States could reach 24,600 departures in the initial full year of commercial service. This estimate encompasses a variety of AAM use cases, including airport shuttle services, commuter air taxis, cargo feeder routes, and medical transport operations. Although the FAA did not specify the exact calendar year when commercial service might begin, it highlighted that the timing depends on variables beyond the scope of the forecast.

According to the report, the nascent AAM industry will start with a modest fleet of seven aircraft operating in two markets. However, the pace of growth is expected to be steep, with the FAA estimating an increase to 80 aircraft across 15 markets by the third year. This expansion is projected to generate approximately 334,800 annual departures, a significant jump reflective of emerging market demand and operational capability.

By the sixth year, the FAA predicts the AAM fleet to consist of 367 aircraft serving 32 markets nationwide. This would produce around 1.6 million annual departures, averaging roughly 4,400 flights daily. Such figures indicate that AAM could become a substantial component of U.S. aviation activity, particularly in urban and regional access sectors, highlighting the escalating relevance of electric and vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.

The forecast also identifies several key manufacturers charting early operational timelines, including Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, and Beta Technologies. These companies are aiming to commence commercial operations in a 2026-2027 timeframe. Moreover, limited AAM flights are already underway this year under the Department of Transportation’s Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing and Advanced Air Mobility Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), which supports early-stage operational testing and integration efforts.

FAA Deputy Administrator Chris Rocheleau emphasized the importance of these pilot partnerships, stating they are instrumental in understanding how to integrate AAM aircraft safely and efficiently into the National Airspace System. The eIPP will supply critical operational experience that will guide the development of regulatory standards and safety frameworks necessary to enable broader AAM adoption.

Airport shuttle service is forecasted to be the dominant AAM operation initially, representing the largest segment of early flights. In addition, cargo feeder services are anticipated to serve sparsely populated western states and island communities, while commuter air taxis and medical transport operations will contribute to the service mix. These diverse applications underscore AAM’s potential to enhance regional connectivity and rapid transit in varied environments.

To assess the fleet size needed for this projected activity, the FAA assumed that aircraft performing airport shuttle, cargo, and commuter air taxi roles would average 28 trips per day, reflecting approximately two trips per hour during a 14-hour operational day. Medical transport aircraft were modeled with a lower utilization rate of 2.5 trips daily, recognizing the specialized nature of those flights.

The agency also noted that announced production capacities by manufacturers appear sufficient to meet forecasted demand, suggesting aircraft availability should not limit fleet growth. This optimistic outlook implies a strong manufacturing pipeline that can scale rapidly as AAM service markets expand and mature.